Tap any scenario to expand its evidence base. Probabilities are computed from live data on every refresh — not hardcoded. All are model-estimated or analyst-derived assessments.
Two-layer system: (1) Live market data is fetched from public sources and run through a deterministic mechanical model; (2) An AI layer assesses the qualitative premiums — geopolitical, private credit, NFCI buffer — and produces the final composite. Recomputed on every refresh.
April 6 protocol active. Layer 3 triggers: HY OAS >400 bps OR S&P <6,300. Decay: 0 of 3 conditions currently met. Ladder updates automatically with each data refresh.
Decay triggers — all 3 required simultaneously
April 2026
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tap a date to expand
seed data — refresh for live AI view
Style × Cap-Size positioning at 40% composite · S&P below 200MA · 10Y at 4.39% · Zero 2026 rate cuts priced
13-sector directional bias · bars show conviction strength · click any row for ETF & rationale