Tap any scenario to expand its evidence base. Probabilities are computed from live data on every refresh — not hardcoded. All are model-estimated or analyst-derived assessments.
seed data — refresh for live AI view
Style × Cap-Size positioning at 40% recession risk · S&P below 200MA · 10Y at 4.39% · Zero 2026 rate cuts priced
13-sector directional bias · bars show conviction strength · click any row for ETF & rationale
Two-layer system: (1) Live market data is fetched from public sources and run through a deterministic mechanical model; (2) An AI layer assesses the qualitative premiums — geopolitical, private credit, NFCI buffer — and produces the final recession risk score. Recomputed on every refresh.